Prop Firm Challenge Calculator — will your strategy pass?

A prop firm challenge calculator estimates the probability that your trading strategy will pass a funded-account evaluation before hitting a daily-loss or max-drawdown rule. This calculator runs a 50,000-path Monte Carlo simulation using the real rules of FTMO, FundingPips, FundedNext, Hola Prime, and The Funded Trader — factoring in your win rate, risk-reward, risk-per-trade, and trade frequency to output pass probability, expected days to pass, and the specific rule most likely to bust you.

Yes. Every feature — pass-probability simulation, cost analysis with discount codes, payout projection, firm business profiles, CSV upload, and shareable result links — is free with no account required. Your inputs are stored only in your own browser.

The Monte Carlo uses 50,000 seeded paths per run, so results are reproducible to the last decimal. Accuracy depends on how well your inputs match your real edge. If you upload at least 100 live trades (not backtest), the bootstrap resampling captures your actual win-rate and RR distribution, and confidence bands tighten meaningfully. Hand-entered stats over-estimate real-world results by 20–40% on average — the Reality Check panel flags this.

FTMO, FundingPips, FundedNext, Hola Prime, The Funded Trader, and Funding Traders — 17 plans in total across the $10K, $25K, $50K, $100K, and $200K account tiers. Each firm's real rules are encoded: profit targets, max daily loss, max total drawdown, minimum trading days, evaluation phases, profit split, and payout cycle. Rules are re-verified periodically against each firm's public rules pages.

The calculator uses the geometric distribution: expected attempts to first pass equals 1 divided by per-attempt pass probability. It multiplies your expected failed attempts by the cheaper of the firm's reset fee or a fresh challenge, adds the initial fee (discount-adjusted), and subtracts the expected refund if the firm refunds the fee on first payout. The result is your net expected cost to reach a funded account.

For every simulated path that busts, the calculator records which rule was violated first — daily loss, max drawdown, minimum trading days, or profit target expiry. The killer-rule panel ranks these so you can see exactly which constraint is your biggest risk given your inputs. Most retail traders bust on max drawdown from overleveraging, not from missing the profit target.

Yes. Every simulation state is encoded into the page PAGE_URL as a compact base64 payload with the RNG seed, so a shared link reproduces the exact result byte-for-byte on any device. Use the Share button to copy the PAGE_URL or send to X, Reddit, or Telegram with UTM tracking preserved.

Yes. The Total Cost panel is seeded with each firm's current public discount code (for example PIPS for FundingPips, NEXT15 for FundedNext, HOLA20 for Hola Prime, TFT10 for The Funded Trader) and you can enter any code and percentage. The effective fee, expected retry cost, and net expected cost all update live.

Once you pass the challenge, the payout projection panel estimates your monthly take-home based on your win rate, risk-reward, risk per trade, and the firm's profit split and payout cycle. It shows monthly gross profit, your share, per-cycle payout, 12-month cumulative curve, and an EV-adjusted figure that multiplies by your pass probability to reflect that you might not pass on the first attempt.